Better Oscar Predictions Through Science

It’s less than a week to the 83rd Academy Awards — the Oscars to the rest of us — so it’s time for predictions! I don’t want to just throw out blind guesses, so I’ve worked out a system. Based on a extensive analysis of all nominees and wins over the last 70 years, undeniable trends emerged that drew a sobering and amazing picture: The Best Actor can be reliably predicted using a simple four-point scale.

Bitter, Broken, Batshit, British

That’s right, you have to be one or more of the above to get nominated. And the more you have, the better your chances of taking home a statue.

Example: 1991

So, let’s do a simple example from 20 years ago. Warren Beatty in Bugsy: Bugsy Siegel was so nicknamed because he was, in reality, batshit. So, he gets one point. Robert De Niro as Max Cady in Cape Fear is also definitively batshit — and bitter. Two points. Nick Nolte was a little gloomy in the Price of Tides, so he’s bitter, and a case can be made that he’s broken, too. Give him two points.

But Anthony Hopkins had it all. Hannibal Lecter is very bitter, very batshit, and our boy Tony is very very British. Three points. It’s a trifecta — he should have gotten three Oscars. It’s okay, though, he was Knighted the next year.

How about lately?

Let’s go back just a year: and we see it holds up. Last year, Colin Firth got close, but Jeff Bridges beat him to it. Both their characters were alcoholics (broken), and while Colin Firth is British, Bridges’ Bad Blake was also bitter and batshit — 3-2, in favor of the crusty old coot.

Rounding out last years’ choices were Clooney and Freeman — both played bitter guys (although Mandela may not even qualify as bitter…giving him no chance to win.) Jeremy Renner’s bomb disposal specialist was decidedly batshit but with no other defect, his chances were also slim.

So, where do I put my money in 2011?

There’s almost a week left to lay your wagers. The studios are spending the remaining days spending millions to convince us that, among other things, James Franco is the best actor ever born, The Social Network is right up there with Citizen Kane, True Grit redefines the modern Western, and The King’s Speech has action in it. But forget all those prickly shafts of sunlight up the ass. We’re after Best Actor, and if we do the math, who is going to actually win?

• Jesse Eisenberg’s brilliant billionaire provocateur is extremely bitter. But little else. (1 point)
• James Franco’s adrenaline junkie is broken, by his own hand — the one he used to cut the other one off.  (1 point)
• Cancer has broken Javier Bardem’s Uxbal and there enough bitter in him to go around. (2 points)
• This year’s Drunken Old Coot role for Jeff Bridges is broken, and bitter, and by the end, demonstrably batshit. (3 points)
• Colin Firth’s stuttering King is quite broken, very bitter about it, and face it, he’s the King. You don’t get more British than that. (3 points)

And, the winner is…

A tie! Bridges and Firth with 3 points. But there’s no pansy two-statue presentation here. Only one will leave. Luckily, there’s an easy way to decide: British is the trump suit at the Oscars — if in doubt, it goes to the Kingdom. Please note this is an American award, so Australians, Irish, Kiwis…Austrians…Italians…even the occasional Boricua has slipped in — most anybody with an accent can get by.

Anyway, that makes Colin Firth’s turn as the lovable, stuttering, oft-foulmouthed King George the VI an automatic for “The King’s Speech”. Take it to the bank. And don’t forget my fee.